Skillsize

— Markets & Intelligence

Investment Thesis Monitor

Tests each assumption behind an investment thesis against live market signals and current research, ruling every one strengthened, weakened, unchanged or invalidated with the evidence attached.

  • Markets & Intelligence
  • Traceable reasoning
  • Runs anywhere
Preview methodology

1 week → ~15 minutes

Including the external research pass

No coding required

Input
Investment thesis
Output
Investment thesis assessment report
Runs in
Skillsize · ChatGPT · Claude · Copilot
Export
SKILL.md · MCP
Time saved
~1 week per run

— USE CASES

What people use Investment Thesis Monitor for

Regular investment thesis reviews

Provides a current assessment of whether the evidence still supports the investment case. Highlights changes in the support for individual assumptions, with the relevant evidence attached.

Material market developments

Assesses how new market evidence affects the assumptions underpinning a position. Distinguishes developments that weaken or invalidate the thesis from those that leave it unchanged.

Investment committee discussions

Produces an evidence-backed report that makes the basis for conviction open to scrutiny. Gives committee members a shared view of supported assumptions and emerging vulnerabilities.

Conflicting research findings

Compares fresh research with the existing investment case, showing where findings reinforce or challenge its underlying assumptions. Grounds the assessment in the evidence rather than a broad market narrative.

What it works from

  • Investment thesis
  • Underlying investment assumptions
  • Current market signals
  • Fresh research relevant to the investment case

What you get back

  • Investment thesis assessment report
  • Assumption-level classifications as strengthened, weakened, unchanged or invalidated
  • Supporting evidence for each assumption assessment
  • Summary of thesis vulnerabilities and areas requiring scrutiny

— HOW IT BEHAVES

How Investment Thesis Monitor produces its result

The mechanics behind this specific template — what it reads, what it calculates, and where a human stays in the loop.

Live research on the reporting period in scope

Current external sources on the reporting period in scope are researched during the run rather than recalled from training data, and every source travels with the output.

Composed as work product

Findings on the reporting period in scope are written up as a document that reads like professional output, with each claim tied back to a line item.

Criteria-based analysis of every line item

Each line item is assessed against explicit criteria you control, so the same standard is applied across the reporting period in scope on every run.

Like-for-like comparison of line items

Line items are compared on the same dimensions, which makes differences meaningful rather than impressionistic.

Why this is expensive by hand

Investment theses can outlast the evidence that originally supported them. In practice it shows up as regular investment thesis reviews: provides a current assessment of whether the evidence still supports the investment case. Highlights changes in the support for individual assumptions, with the relevant evidence attached. The value sits in the rigour, not the typing — yet the rigour is exactly what gets traded away when there is only 1 week of capacity for it.

How this Skill produces it

Here the same job runs as a Skill. Your material goes in; investment thesis assessment report comes out, alongside assumption-level classifications as strengthened, weakened, unchanged or invalidated. What sits between input and output is the codified method: thresholds, sequencing and the points where a human confirms a call — all of it visible and editable in the Skill. In effect, 1 week of senior time compresses into ~15 minutes — and the output is comparable across clients, quarters and colleagues instead of shaped by whoever ran it.

Who it's for

  • Strategy and market intelligence teams
  • Corporate development and investment teams
  • Consultants advising on positioning and timing
  • Leaders who need early warning, not hindsight

Run it in Skillsize — or export it anywhere

Investment Thesis Monitor exports as a structured SKILL.md file and is MCP-ready, so the same method runs in ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot or your own AI products. Adapt it to your methodology, and the intelligence stays yours — not locked to one vendor.

ChatGPTClaudeCopilotAI Products (MCP)

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