— Strategy & Research
Builds an investment or new-business thesis from current market evidence — demand, economics, timing and right to win — then stress-tests every assumption and states what would prove it wrong.
1–2 weeks → ~15 minutes
Including the external research pass
No coding required
— USE CASES
Builds a coherent case for a proposed business, connecting customer demand, economics, market timing and the organisation’s right to win. Identifies where the evidence supports commitment and where the proposition remains speculative.
Provides an evidence-based thesis for investment discussions, with the commercial rationale, critical assumptions and counterarguments made explicit. Gives decision-makers a clear view of what must hold true for the opportunity to succeed.
Tests a venture narrative against conflicting evidence and alternative explanations. Defines what would disprove the thesis, helping teams distinguish conviction from attachment to an idea.
Highlights material evidence gaps and assumptions that carry the greatest weight in the case. Provides a focused basis for deciding which uncertainties merit further research or commercial testing.
— HOW IT BEHAVES
The mechanics behind this specific template — what it reads, what it calculates, and where a human stays in the loop.
Current external sources on the market being watched are researched during the run rather than recalled from training data, and every source travels with the output.
Findings on the market being watched are written up as a document that reads like professional output, with each claim tied back to a signal.
Each signal is assessed against explicit criteria you control, so the same standard is applied across the market being watched on every run.
Signals are compared on the same dimensions, which makes differences meaningful rather than impressionistic.
New venture proposals often combine promising market signals with untested assumptions about customer demand, commercial viability and the organisation’s ability to compete. In practice it shows up as assessing a venture opportunity: builds a coherent case for a proposed business, connecting customer demand, economics, market timing and the organisation’s right to win. Identifies where the evidence supports commitment and where the proposition remains speculative. The value sits in the rigour, not the typing — yet the rigour is exactly what gets traded away when there is only 1–2 weeks of capacity for it.
Here the same job runs as a Skill. Your material goes in; evidence-based investment or new-business thesis comes out, alongside assessment of demand, economics and market timing. The judgement is built in — how items are broken up, what standard they are held to, and where the run stops for a human review. Net effect: 1–2 weeks down to ~15 minutes, no drift between runs, and every conclusion traceable back to the evidence behind it.
New Venture Thesis Builder exports as a structured SKILL.md file and is MCP-ready, so the same method runs in ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot or your own AI products. Adapt it to your methodology, and the intelligence stays yours — not locked to one vendor.
Researches the forces capable of materially changing an industry — technology, regulation, new entrants, shifting economics and customer behaviour — and ranks them by probability, velocity and impact with early indicators to watch.
Researches emerging growth opportunities across a sector and its adjacencies and scores each on momentum, market attractiveness, strategic fit and timing so effort goes only to the ones that are real and right for you.
Researches demand, competition, regulation and economics in a target geography or segment and rules on whether entry conditions are improving or deteriorating, showing the signals behind the call.
Combines a structured market assessment of size, growth, profitability and competitive intensity with current signal research to score opportunity, momentum, barriers and risk into one defensible attractiveness verdict.
Converts external market and technology signals into a prioritised innovation pipeline, each opportunity carrying a concept sketch, its evidence base and a build, partner or watch recommendation.
Develops a board-ready recommendation on a client’s strategic question, drawing on the firm’s knowledge, current market evidence and prior learning to compare options and make the case for a decision.
